Forum:2005 Atlantic hurricane season/August
This is a Wikipedia Archive The following forum is a transclusion of tropical discussion on Wikipedia talk pages which occurred before the existence of the Hurricane Wiki. It is simply provided here for ease of access. August Week 1 So we come into August with a quiet Atlantic. How long can this last??? CrazyC83 22:46, 31 July 2005 (UTC) :The tropical weather outlook is pretty busy atm. --tomf688<TALK> 23:04, July 31, 2005 (UTC) We've still got 92L.INVEST pulling away from the Greater Antilles but not expected to do anything, 93L.INVEST now just inside the Caribbean looking all spirally but not very strong, and 94L.INVEST so far out in the Atlantic that they're pointing European weather satellites at it. -- Cyrius|✎ 00:36, 1 August 2005 (UTC) Florida isn't scared, but it could be interesting to watch if these systems decide to do anything. 92L could develop over the next few days, 93L probably won't do anything, and 94L may become a subtropical cyclone in the next few days. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:39, 1 August 2005 (UTC) With exception to the potential subtropical storm, it looks like the tropics will be quiet for a bit longer. More Saharan dust is getting picked up, drying up the ITCZ. Current water vapor satellite image. --Holderca1 17:55, 1 August 2005 (UTC) : Mmhh... Doesn't more dust induce more water condensation and clouds? Awolf002 18:10, 1 August 2005 (UTC) ::Some dust, yes. Too much sand, no. Like everything else in nature, it's a delicate balance. --Golbez 18:57, August 1, 2005 (UTC) The disturbance near Bermuda is looking better organized. --Holderca1 17:37, 2 August 2005 (UTC) 08L.Harvey 92L Invest, after a lot of wandering around being sheared, did get better organized and is now TD #8. Kitesailor 20:09, August 2, 2005 (UTC) Not so, says the National Hurricane Center. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 20:13, 2 August 2005 (UTC) :Check NRL/FMNOC. 08L.TDEIGHT. I assume that's a placeholder name til 08L.NONAME or something, it's a bit off-standard. --Golbez 20:29, August 2, 2005 (UTC) The National Hurricane Center has not issued warnings on this system. That means that a tropical cyclone has not formed. While the Navy site has it listed as 8L NONAME, they have no satellite photoes available nor do they have a track map posted. Again, these are good, if not certain indicators that a tropical cyclone has not yet formed. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 20:36, 2 August 2005 (UTC) :Quite right; the NHC hasn't issued warnings. But the NRL either seems to always have the first responsibility for designating these things, or they simply update their site with NOAA info faster than the NHC does. After all, the Hurricane Hunters are part of the military. They'd know first. --Golbez 20:40, August 2, 2005 (UTC) Turns out, you guys were only a few minutes premature. Tropical Depression Eight has formed and is heading toward Bermuda. It is expected to strengthen to a Tropical Storm Harvey. Permission to swear? E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 20:44, 2 August 2005 (UTC) :Remember that the Navy has a large interest in staying on top of tropical cyclone development (the N in NOGAPS doesn't stand for NHC). This will help prevent future swearing. -- Cyrius|✎ 21:12, 2 August 2005 (UTC) I was referring to the fact that an eighth tropical depression has formed in the Atlantic, not the fact that the Navy site was premature, which is now a moot point. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:25, 2 August 2005 (UTC) :And Cyrius is pointing out that they weren't premature. It was the NHC who was late. :) --Golbez 21:27, August 2, 2005 (UTC) Well someone actually has to write an public and forcast advisories and the discussion as well as prepare the forcast track. That doesn't just appear out of thin air. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:38, 2 August 2005 (UTC) From the 11pm advisory: "Harvey refuses to weaken" Stubbern storm. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:00, 7 August 2005 (UTC) 09L.Irene Hehehe. Classic Cape Verde tropical wave. This could get really interesting if that develops. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:31, 4 August 2005 (UTC) A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. :Between the Atlantic discussions, the TWO, the "invest" declaration, and the satellite images I've seen, this one's got nowhere to go but up... The Great Zo 02:16, 4 August 2005 (UTC) Well she_at. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 02:32, 4 August 2005 (UTC) :Could this be Irene? Right from the beginning of the season, I felt Irene would be one of the bad storms of the season, going by the fact that in each of the last four seasons, the "I" storm was a devastating one...if Irene is retired, they may be starting to run out of "I" names since that would be 5 straight! CrazyC83 04:49, 4 August 2005 (UTC) :It's going to need to move west a bit before it hits good tropical cyclone fuel, water in the eastern Atlantic is relatively cool right now, it appears. -- Cyrius|✎ 06:07, 4 August 2005 (UTC) ::Well, the tropical outlook says that conditions are favorable for development and that a tropical depression could form in the next couple of days. bob rulz 07:46, August 4, 2005 (UTC) :::Cyrius, I don't understand why you're saying the tropical water is cool. This image from the NOAA shows that temperatures in the Atlantic are indeed Above normal, as indicated by the Yellow's Orange's and Red's on the map. Even the greens show a normal temperature level. But, from this map, the temperatures in the east are definately warmer than the west. -- Bladeswin 18:27, August 4, 2005 (UTC) ::::The temperatures of the west Atlantic are warmer than the east, the band of 28+ degree waters is rather small in the east Atlantic and much broader in the west where it is at 29+ degrees. The western Atlantic will always be warmer than the eastern Alantic due to the clockwise current. SSTs --Holderca1 19:14, 4 August 2005 (UTC) :::: When I said "relatively cool", I meant relative to the water in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico that has been fueling the season to date. That's a temperature anomaly map. It shows temperatures relative to the average for that date. What matters in a tropical system is actual temperature. 09L is sitting over 27C water right now, which isn't cold, but is a bit low to fuel a monster. Interesting side note, you can still see Emily's cool wake in that image. -- Cyrius|✎ 19:59, 4 August 2005 (UTC) NRL has upgraded to Tropical Depression Nine. Waiting for NHC to issue a TCFA. (I know Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts aren't issued anywhere but the WPac, but I like the term. :) --Golbez 19:43, August 4, 2005 (UTC) ...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE ATLANTIC... YES...INDEED WE HAVE ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE DEEP TROPICS. If I hadn't looked at the byline, I've have thought Franklin wrote those. I think the TPC guys are getting punchy. --Golbez 20:41, August 4, 2005 (UTC) Who can blame them? The forcasts bring the depression to a moderate Category 1 hurricane in five days...headed west. We're in trouble. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 20:49, 4 August 2005 (UTC) :Based on that five-day forecast, this is looking like one of three things: a Northeast or Mid-Atlantic hurricane, one headed for Bermuda and possibly Atlantic Canada, or possibly a fish-spinner. CrazyC83 21:36, 4 August 2005 (UTC) ::And here I was thinking we were entering a lull in activity. :S --tomf688<TALK> 22:30, August 4, 2005 (UTC) "Figured wrong Butch". E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:15, 4 August 2005 (UTC) HOW LITTLE WE KNOW ABOUT THE GENESIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY SHOWED A DISTINCT DISTURBANCE IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH ALL KNOWN FACTORS APPARENTLY FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. SURPRISINGLY THIS MORNING...VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED. UNEXPECTEDLY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVED NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS AND LOST MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. From the 11 am TD9 discussion. This one sounds like Franklin too, but it's Avila. :) Kitesailor 15:56, August 5, 2005 (UTC) Surprise! This thing fooled us again - instead of developing as expected, it just doesn't want to do anything! A stillborn storm perhaps? 24.226.10.99 16:29, 5 August 2005 (UTC) The wave behind it is looking more impressive at this point. --Holderca1 17:39, 5 August 2005 (UTC) :An excellent example of jumping to conclusions too soon. --tomf688<TALK> 19:22, August 5, 2005 (UTC) ::I agree, if they first looked at this storm today, would they have called it a depression? Probably not. --Holderca1 20:55, 5 August 2005 (UTC) I think they would have designated it a depression. It still has good structure, it just lost some deep convection. Remember, the storm did not weaken, it still has winds of 30 mph, it just isn't strengthening like they expected it to. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:13, 5 August 2005 (UTC) :I don't know if I can agree with that assessment. The wind speeds have never been measured with this storm yet. They have only estimated its intensity. As we saw only a short time ago how far off those estimates can be when the WC-130 flew into Harvey and found winds ~20 knots higher than what they had estimated via satellite imagery. So I don't really think that you can say that this storm hasn't weakened with respect to wind speeds with any degree of certainty. --Holderca1 13:17, 6 August 2005 (UTC) ::Well, apparently it's looking more impressive than it was on the satellite imagery. They bumped the intensity up to 35 mph. bob rulz 15:54, August 6, 2005 (UTC) "Looks like the patient may live, doctor." E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 15:59, 6 August 2005 (UTC) :She's not giving up...I know of many storms that have taken a long time to develop then took off on the approach (although it would still need a lot of water left, storms rarely go into the extremely rapid deepening in the mid-Atlantic like they do in the Gulf or Caribbean with their 30-33°C SST's - it would take at least 18-24 hours for a storm to gain significant intensity) CrazyC83 02:53, 7 August 2005 (UTC) She? It ain't named yet. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 02:58, 7 August 2005 (UTC) :Now she is. It looks like it will either be a fish-spinner or a Northeast/Atlantic Canada storm... CrazyC83 19:19, 7 August 2005 (UTC) July summary The June summary was released at 8am on July 1, so I expect similar with July. I'm really looking forward to reading this. --Golbez 05:53, August 1, 2005 (UTC) : :( Neither basin has a July summary yet. --Golbez 19:26, August 1, 2005 (UTC) ::There was more to summarize for July than was for June. --tomf688<TALK> 21:19, August 1, 2005 (UTC) The eastern pacific shouldn't take that long. They only had Dora and Eugene. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:21, 1 August 2005 (UTC) Heh, I googled for the WMO header and found it. It was indeed released at 8am. It's not on NHC's site yet. Let's see.. THE MONTH OF JULY SAW UNPRECEDENTED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FIVE NAMED STORMS... TROPICAL STORM CINDY...HURRICANE DENNIS...HURRICANE EMILY... TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN...AND TROPICAL STORM GERT. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR NAMED STORMS THAT FORMED IN JULY WAS FOUR. THE TWO MAJOR HURRICANES THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE MONTH TIED A RECORD SET IN 1916. THE JULY ACTIVITY FOLLOWS AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE ...AND THE SEVEN NAMED STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED THUS FAR IN 2005 REPRESENT A RECORD LEVEL OF ACTIVITY FOR THE FIRST TWO MONTHS OF THE SEASON. So most notable about this is that Cindy was not posthumously upgraded to a hurricane. I figured it would be, apparently so did others, judging from edits. SUMMARY TABLE NAME DATES MAX WIND DEATHS U.S. DAMAGE MPH $MILLION ---------------------------------------------------------- TS CINDY 3-7 JUL 70 0 * H DENNIS 4-12 JUL 150 32+ * H EMILY 11-21 JUL 155 5+ * TS FRANKLIN 21-29 JUL 70 0 TS GERT 23-25 JUL 45 0 ---------------------------------------------------------- NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC) *...ESTIMATE NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE So there we are. Dollar figures will probably be available in the tropical cyclone reports, which tend to come out two to three months after the storm, depending. (Otto died on Dec 3, TCR came out on Dec 7; Frances died Sept 8 and the TCR came out Dec 17) --Golbez 21:25, August 1, 2005 (UTC) :They haven't released the final reports - those come in the fall. My guess is Cindy will be upgraded to a hurricane then. Also I think that Emily will officially be upgraded to 160 mph, making it a Category 5, in the final reports. CrazyC83 00:21, 2 August 2005 (UTC) August update "The updated outlook calls for an extremely active season, with an expected seasonal total of 18-21 tropical storms (mean is 10), with 9-11 becoming hurricanes (mean is 6), and 5-7 of these becoming major hurricanes (mean is 2-3). The likely range of the ACE index for the season as a whole is 180%-270% of the median." This really sucks. The NHC's estimates are usually conservative. And they predict 18-21 storms with a high rate of certainty. Floridians are liable to faint at first glance. I have never heard the NHC this nervous about a season. I am officially scared. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.html And, as if to prove their point, the broad surface low pressure system (92L Invest) is getting better organized and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form within the next 24-36 hours. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/021514.shtml E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 20:07, 2 August 2005 (UTC) :I think even those numbers are underestimated. My prediction is 22-25 named storms, 12-14 hurricanes and 8 major hurricanes. CrazyC83 22:45, 2 August 2005 (UTC) ::Horribly overestimated. Only one more storm... Harvey! --tomf688<TALK> 01:05, August 3, 2005 (UTC) I wish. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 01:12, 3 August 2005 (UTC) Eek. :"Even though there has already been considerable early season activity (7 tropical storms, with two becoming major hurricanes), most of the activity is still expected to occur during the climatological peak months of August-October." -- Cyrius|✎ 01:40, 3 August 2005 (UTC) :If this year has taught us anything, climatology doesn't mean sheet. ;) --tomf688<TALK> 01:49, August 3, 2005 (UTC) Weeks 2 and 3 09L.Irene (continued) Looks like Irene doesn't know what she wants to do...could be an interesting week ahead? CrazyC83 05:05, 10 August 2005 (UTC) :On August 5th at ~1 AM PST, I made the half-arsed prediction that Irene would hit North Carolina, but with the August 10th 5 AM update, it looks like Irene could die out before reaching it. What do you guys think? RattleMan 08:59, 10 August 2005 (UTC) ::You don't have to ask people what they think, they'll tell you even if you don't want them to. Anyway, Franklin is saying that the forecasts have "very low confidence." Irene is so weak and disorganized that it is difficult to forecast. Strong storms tend to be more well-behaved. -- Cyrius|✎ 10:47, 10 August 2005 (UTC) :::Well, it looks like that if it survives it could hit somewhere from North Carolina to New England, or turn sharply to the northeast and remain a fish-spinner, but that's looking less likely with each new update. I believe that it may impact somewhere along there, but I doubt that it's going to be very powerful. bob rulz 11:03, August 10, 2005 (UTC) ::::Irene is degenerating. Wait, it's getting better organized! Wait, it's degenerating. Wait, it's getting better organized! Wait, it's degenerating. Wait, it's getting better organized! Wait, it's degenerating. Wait, it's getting better organized! Wait, it's degenerating. etc etc etc etc The Great Zo 15:09, 10 August 2005 (UTC) :::::NC is very likely to be hit by this storm, possibly as a Cat 1. I should point out that the "I" storm was retired the last two years, and the last time "I" didn't reach hurricane strength was 1989. (There was no "I" storm in 91, 92, 93, 94, or 97; hey, that table I made at User:Golbez/sandbox paid off!) :::I'm wondering if the NHC is wobbling on this because of measurement uncertainties. They seem to quote wind speed numbers with a "step" of 5 mph (30 - 35 - 40 - 45). Maybe that's very close to the actual uncertainty, and so the number is "clicking" up and down on a whim... Awolf002 15:20, 10 August 2005 (UTC) ::::They're wobbling because Irene is. Last night, Irene was barely visible on satellite imagery. As I write this, it is a few hours from fully looking like a tropical storm again. -- Cyrius|✎ 16:12, 10 August 2005 (UTC) :::::I called it. -- Cyrius|✎ 04:42, 11 August 2005 (UTC) Right now it is looking like North Carolina as a Category 1-2 hurricane, although it is still too early to tell...she's fooled us so many times - not wanting to strengthen, then not wanting to die... CrazyC83 04:17, 11 August 2005 (UTC) I should point out that, even though Dr. Gray and the NHC updated their forecast to 21 storms, thusfar in August - the second most active month - we've had two weak tropical storms. Between Aug 1 and Aug 11 in 2004, we'd had a major hurricane, a rather strong tropical storm, and a category 4 monster. Maybe the season burnt out early and the forecasters overreacted. --Golbez 17:44, August 11, 2005 (UTC) A hurricane hunter aircraft has found Irene a Hurricane. This will be reflected in the 11:00 advisory. Just as I had given up hope on the thing ever strengthening, too. (Edited 'cause somehow it showed up twice) The Great Zo 00:00, 15 August 2005 (UTC) Irene just broke a record: She was a tropical cyclone for 13 days before becoming a hurricane. This breaks Lisa's record of 11. That record stood for 10 months, 12 days, 12 hours and 30 minutes...approximatly of course. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 02:54, 15 August 2005 (UTC) 10L.NONAME Looks like we have our possible tenth storm of the season... from the NHC: "A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS." Boort 03:36, 12 August 2005 (UTC) It's probably a bit reactionary to call any disturbance mentioned in the TWO "the possible nth storm of the season". Still, this one did seem to have a decent "twist" to it on satellite, despite the fact that decent-quality satellite images for that far out in the ocean don't exist. The Great Zo 03:55, 12 August 2005 (UTC) Well, it's now got an identifier attached to it. -- Cyrius|✎ 13:04, 12 August 2005 (UTC) :And now the TWO mentions Tropical Depression formation in the next day or two. Alright, forget trying to be "reasonable" and suggesting that we take a step back and not get too excited at every area of clouds that forms in the Atlantic - I am now convinced that any cloud in the Atlantic basin is now desitned to become a Tropical Storm. The Great Zo 15:27, 12 August 2005 (UTC) ::Still playing wait-and-see...most concerned about Irene right now. CrazyC83 02:22, 13 August 2005 (UTC) :::As of right now... 96L has a very impressive circulation as apparent even on IR imagery... perhaps apparent, though, because it has lost every ounce of its deep convection! Probably just a normal cycle, but seems to be a bit extreme for such an oscillation. The Great Zo 05:25, 13 August 2005 (UTC) Current TWO "SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF NORTHWEST OVER OPEN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS." Seems that we will have Tropical Depression 10 soon! It already looks like a tropical depression on the satellite images.bob rulz 15:45, August 13, 2005 (UTC) :The latest model runs from the NHC list the disturbance as Tropical Depression Ten. It's official. The Great Zo 18:53, 13 August 2005 (UTC) The NHC sounds uncertain if the depression even exists. Have you read their latest discussion? E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:02, 14 August 2005 (UTC) :It looks fairly well-defined to me...looks like it will likely become Tropical Storm Jose tomorrow... CrazyC83 02:38, 14 August 2005 (UTC) :: It should be José, with an accent... --Revolución (talk) 04:22, 14 August 2005 (UTC) From the 11pm discussion: "The depression is beginning to look like Irene-Junior as it undergoes southwesterly mid-level shear..." Cute. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:39, 14 August 2005 (UTC) :It's dead. If the circulation holds up it could regenerate in a few days... but despite what we've seen with Irene, that'd be an absolutely monumental task... The Great Zo 22:37, 14 August 2005 (UTC) The tenth tropical depression of the season failed to hold up last year too. This one's track looks very similar to that of last year's TD Ten. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:23, 14 August 2005 (UTC) The tenth TD last year formed near AZORES which is in the middle of the atlantic ocean. It is nothing like last years and it should actully regenrate it look like irene did last week it should not have been downgraded NONAME 15:37:24, 15 August 2005 :Actually, it looks a lot less disorganized than Irene did last week. And it's similar to TD10 last year in the fact that it lasted less than a day before dissipating. bob rulz 16:18, August 15, 2005 (UTC) This TD Ten may have a second chance. The NHC says the remnant low could redevelop in the next couple of days as it enters a more favorable environment. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:36, 16 August 2005 (UTC) TD10 appears to be redeveloping. --Revolución (talk) 21:16, 18 August 2005 (UTC) :From the NHC: :"SATELLITE IMAGES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO." :-- RattleMan 21:31, 18 August 2005 (UTC) Dude, that was several days ago. The tropical weather outlook says it has the potential to redevelop in a day or so. I don't know what Rattleman's post was about. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:37, 18 August 2005 (UTC) :I'm a bit confused...who are you talking to? Are you saying that the text I posted was several days old? Or in reference to TD10 redeveloping? I got that text from today's 5:30 PM EST update, here. -- RattleMan 22:13, 18 August 2005 (UTC) Sorry, I was confused. That entry looked very similar to an outlook I'd seen a couple days ago. Shame, the Atlantic looks like it's going to stay boring for the next couple of days. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:12, 19 August 2005 (UTC) Week 4 There seems to be a few more systems trying to develop...how long can this break last? It's 2005, remember... CrazyC83 03:58, 21 August 2005 (UTC) :That tropical wave off Africa looks promising. It looks like we have three chances for a depression and a named storm: :1) "AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO" :2) "CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA" :3) "A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ... OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA" :-- RattleMan 04:01, 21 August 2005 (UTC) The NHC says the disturbance north of Puerto Rico won't amount to anything. The other two look promising. If the wave out of Africa becomes anything, it won't be tomorrow and not likely to be Tuesday. Our best chance is with the disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula. A Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to pay it a visit tomorrow when it reaches the Bay of Campeche. It has until 6:00 am on Tuesday to develop or Jerry retains the record. I've been looking at the satellite pictures and the storm is now over the central Yucatan. It looks better organized than when I saw it last... As for the wave out of Africa, they are using terms like 'strong' and 'vigorous'. That's not good. Those terms were used for waves that became beasts like Gilbert, Hugo, and Ivan. Then again, the last time they used those terms was for the wave that became Irene. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 16:41, 21 August 2005 (UTC) 97L.Invest Area number 3 that RattleMan listed above... off the coast of Africa... is now 97L.Invest. I wish I could find some decent satellite imagery for that far out in the Atlantic. The Great Zo 05:07, 21 August 2005 (UTC) :I found 1 and 2 and 3. BTW, where do you get your info on invests? I haven't found a central location for that yet... -- RattleMan 05:33, 21 August 2005 (UTC) ::From the Navy's hurricane site, located here: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html. Kind of an awkward site but it works. As for satellite images, those are pretty good. What I've always wondered though is why the satellite they've got pointed at that area only takes images every six hours. Does it just sit there for 5 hours and 59 minutes and then take a picture or something? The Great Zo 11:12, 21 August 2005 (UTC) This wave is very well formed. NHC says several models turn it into a tropical cyclone. Compare the pictures that Rattleman provided to this: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi. This is the embryo that became Ivan. 97L looks even better formed than that. Note the number of the Invest that became Ivan: 98L. 97L actually formed after the Yucatan suspect area, so it should be 98L too in my opinion. This wave is creeping me out. (the link doesn't work. I'll fix it later) E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 16:56, 21 August 2005 (UTC) :Does this link work? AySz88^- 02:06, August 22, 2005 (UTC) Looks like José or Katrina could be the next big one (depending on what the other one does)...but the tropics are super-fickle, and such storms don't always develop. Also what would happen if TD10 was really a tropical storm-strength storm in the later analysis, would it just be renamed Tropical Storm 10 or would it be given the name José posthumously? CrazyC83 21:47, 21 August 2005 (UTC) It almost certainly would stay unnamed, since the name Jose is likely to be allocated to another storm. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 22:33, 21 August 2005 (UTC) I found this blog on wunderground.com on current tropical activity; I find it more informative than anything I can find on the NHC website http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html, since this guy is very thorough and it gives you information on what the models are predicting. According to a lot of the models, the Atlantic could become extremely active in 7-10 days time. bob rulz 05:37, August 22, 2005 (UTC) :Assuming TD11 becomes José, it looks like Hurricane Katrina may be the first big Cape Verde storm of 2005...I wouldn't be surprised if, by September 1st, we have 3 or 4 storms out at once... CrazyC83 19:14, 22 August 2005 (UTC) "...Katrina may become the first big Cape Verde storm of 2005." What about Emily? Don't forget her. She was a big dog. A 155 mph Catagory 5 wannabe, reminding Mexico all too well of Mr. Gilbert: the biggest beast ever to roam the Atlantic. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:51, 23 August 2005 (UTC) :Look at it's track http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005/EMILY/track.gif; Emily was not a Cape Verde storm. bob rulz 01:03, August 23, 2005 (UTC) Then neither are Gilbert http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1988/GILBERT/track.gif,Floyd http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/FLOYD/track.gif,or Charley http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/CHARLEY/track.gif. If you're going by the 40-west rule, this would all be true. This is why I don't go by the 40-west rule. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 02:39, 23 August 2005 (UTC) :Agreed with Charley (it seemed to originate in the eastern Caribbean). Disagreed with Floyd and Gilbert, their origins were clearly in the Cape Verde regions. CrazyC83 03:23, 23 August 2005 (UTC) ::I am in agreement with you CrazyC. I was merely trying to point out how stupid the 40-west rule is. For me, if it forms east of the Lesser Antilles from an African wave, I dub it a Cape Verde storm. Therefore, Emily was a Cape Verde hurricane. Period (in my book). ::E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:33, 23 August 2005 (UTC) :::Well, I guess I follow the 40W rule. I didn't know about the 40 West thing that some people follow, I was just pointing to the fact that it formed a good 1,000 or more miles away from the Cape Verde Islands. I wouldn't call that the "Cape Verde region". bob rulz 14:27, August 23, 2005 (UTC) 97L is continually getting better organized and is heading into a more favorable environment for development. This could be bad. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 22:01, 24 August 2005 (UTC) :Someone mentioned above about satellite images for the eastern atlantic. Here is a recent loop (97L is looking pretty organized imo, but I'm no meteorologist). http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html --tomf688<TALK> 22:53, August 24, 2005 (UTC) :Sure looks like Tropical Depression 13 to me! It should be official soon, I think, and likely will be Tropical Storm (and Hurricane?) Lee in the next few days. However, I can't see this one being a threat to land...all eyes will be on Katrina for now. CrazyC83 04:35, 25 August 2005 (UTC) From the 6:00 pm outlook: "...an area of low pressure 97L associated with a tropical wave...remains well organized. A tropical depression could form at any time tonight or Friday..." Yikes! This would qualify as a problem. I guess I shouldn't be significantly concerned, given its location, but it would certainly be a nail-biter if this storm suddenly got its own heading reading "Tropical Depression Thirteen". E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:51, 25 August 2005 (UTC) :In my view, it should have been declared TD13 yesterday... CrazyC83 22:52, 26 August 2005 (UTC) ::1030pm Outlook says its dying THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SYSTEM AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LESS LIKELY. ::Also check out this radar loop. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html Seems to be stalled and really isn't looking that spectacular. --tomf688<TALK> 03:28, August 27, 2005 (UTC) 11L José Bret, anyone? --tomf688<TALK> 16:10, August 22, 2005 (UTC) :Gert, anyone? The Great Zo 16:29, 22 August 2005 (UTC) It may not even strengthen to a storm. The NHC said two of their most reliable models don't even bring it to storm strength. They put 35knots in the forecast only as a precaution. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 18:50, 22 August 2005 (UTC) :I think it will become Tropical Storm Jose right before landfall with winds of 35 knots (I can't see how we can have back-to-back duds), then immediately back down to a tropical depression. CrazyC83 19:16, 22 August 2005 (UTC) ::We now have Tropical Storm Jose. http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/WTNT61.KNHC --tomf688<TALK> 21:34, August 22, 2005 (UTC) Another Bret-imitator. Shoulda called Bret Tropical Storm Elvis. We may be looking at a 'Katrina' (African wave) and 'Lee' (TD Ten's ghost) in a couple days. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:43, 22 August 2005 (UTC) 12L.Katrina See Talk:2005 Atlantic hurricane season/Katrina 13L.NONAME 90L.INVEST was just declared on the Navy site. It is located just southwest of the Cape Verde islands, and fails to impress me thus far. The Great Zo 19:00, 26 August 2005 (UTC) :If 97L couldn't develop (when it seemed like TD13 to me), there is little hope for this blob. CrazyC83 19:31, 26 August 2005 (UTC) 97L isn't done yet. The NHC still says it could become a tropical depression tonight or tomorrow, because it is entering a more favorable environment. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:15, 26 August 2005 (UTC) :Regardless, it appears that even if 97L turned into TD13 (Lee?), it would be a fish-spinner... CrazyC83 22:21, 26 August 2005 (UTC) Ah, Grasshopper, the tropics are extremely fickle. Do you know how the current upper level atmosphere and lower level steering currents will affect a tropical cyclone if it forms from that wave? E. Brown 3:32 PM EDT - the navy site now indiates that 90L.INVEST has become 13L.NONAME. We can't buy a break. Advisories on the new depression will likely be initiated at 5:00. The Great Zo 19:33, 28 August 2005 (UTC) :This is the season that won't let down! It seems storms are willing to form out of any circumstances, intensify or die under anything, upgrade from mere blobs...when does this have to be upgraded to TS Lee to keep the records going? CrazyC83 20:17, 28 August 2005 (UTC) ::It's got three hours... heh. Not going to happen. Luis of 1995 will remain the victor. The Great Zo 20:35, 28 August 2005 (UTC) :::Yeah, barring TD13/Lee going into rapid deepening right now (almost unheard of for a tropical depression) but the fastest 13th named storm will likely be broken at this rate... CrazyC83 21:51, 28 August 2005 (UTC) :Kiss this thing goodbye. (For now at least) CrazyC83 15:11, 29 August 2005 (UTC)